If there was ever a weekend which typified why the
Heineken Cup is such a wonderful competition, this is it. Four absolutely intriguing contests in which form from the pool stages will ultimately have limited, if any bearing in these head to head one off clashes. This is gladiatorial rugby at its best and don't you just love it!
We can be impressed by the sublime skill on show at times in Super Rugby, we can relish the prospect of a competitive Six Nations and we can look forward and hope that a Northern Hemisphere side might just secure the World Cup, but frankly nothing matches the excitement, the loyalty, the passion and incredible intensity of the Heineken Cup.
A semi-final line up of Northampton v Perpignon and Leicester v Toulouse is my very tentative hunch but potentially fool hardy prediction!
Perpignon v Toulon - Perpignon by up to 5 points
It promises to be a unique occasion, as rugby is played in the Olympic Stadium for the first time. A symbol of Catalan identity and honour which I am sure will drive Perpignon to new levels and probably a close win. Toulon will enter this cauldron knowing that on their day they are match for any side in Europe and at times their rugby can be sublime, as many a Munster supporter will testify. Both sides have been plagued by inconsistency with Toulon gaining a good away victory over Perpignon 29-20, in their Top 14 clash in early November, with tries from Fernandez Lobbe and Sackey and without Jonny Wilkinson at ten.
While I go for a Perpignon win I still hold on to the romantic notion that I will be watching Jonny in Cardiff come the final! In the words of the great man:
"Rugby is like a drug and you need your fix. You have to get it and a Heineken Cup quarter-final is pretty much the same as a international. It's another chance to get out there and live the dream."
Leinster v Leicester - Leicester by up to 5 points
An incredibly mouth watering and compelling match up. There are so many potentially great individual and unit contests to look forward to. Leicester will trust that there will not be a repeat for Ben Youngs and Toby Flood of their nightmare for England in the Aviva Stadium, and their battle with Eoin Redden and Jonny Sexton is going to be crucial. It will also be intriguing to see how the young guns of Anthony Allen and Manu Tuilagi match up to Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy. We might just see the young Tuliagi test O'Driscoll's mettle with a few early route one crash balls. This is also a big test for the Leicester pair in terms of their international aspirations and possible selection for the World Cup.
I fancy that the battle of the back rows could be one of the great contests of the season. Shane Jennings has failed a fitness test so Kevin McLaughlin continues alongside Sean O'Brien, who will make his 50th Leinster appearance and Jamie Heaslip.
Thomas Waldrom was probably expected to start at No.8, but Richard Cockerill has stuck with the same back row as last week against Harlequins, with Craig Newby captaining the side from the open side alongside Tom Crofts and Jordan Crane. Waldrom coming on with half an hour to go looks a strong possibility. Dan Cole gets the nod over Martin Castrogiovanni and Boris Stankovivh comes in for the suspended, Marcos Ayurza.
I am going for Leicester on the basis that they get a good degree of control in the front five and then go on to really test Leinster across the park. I just think it could be one of those Leicester moments of digging very deep and coming up trumps - "cometh the hour cometh the tigers" and all that!
Northampton Saints v Ulster -
Northampton by 11-15 points
For Northampton Saints the last three weeks have been about regrouping and restoration. On the basis of
last week's performance the process has been successful and they will be looking to take a further step on the road to recovery on Sunday. They were very much back to their best at times last week in their 8 try performance - powerful and belligerent upfront, playing with a great tempo and full of incisive attacking ideas. The returning internationals have all looked sharp while Courtney Lawes now looks fully recovered and back to form after his injury. For me though the key for the Saints has been the return of Lee Dickson from injury. Without him the Saints really struggled to assert themselves and they were nowhere near the potent attacking force we saw earlier in the season. He gives real energy and tempo to the side and ensures that the Saints get on the front foot. His clash with the hugely influential and impressive Ruan Pienaar.
Ulster will take heart from the fact that Sale Sharks did stretch the Saints at times particularly when they went through the phases and produced quick ball. I would imagine that Northampton will have been doing a good deal of defensive work this week in light of a less than impressive performance in this area.
The Irish side come in to the match off the back of nine wins in their last ten games and now lie in second place in the Magners League. Key to this run has been the form of the half backs with Ian Humphreys being ranked by Amlin Opta Stats as as the 9th best player in the 2010/11 Heineken Cup so far. Captained by Rory Best, there is just once change in the starting line-up from the side which defeated Llanelli Scarlets at Ravenhill last week, with Chris Henry starting in the openside berth ahead of Willie Faloon who is named on the bench. While the
loss of Stephen Ferris is a big blow to the province, they have shown in recent weeks what a resilient and very difficult side to play against - their last three victories have been by the margin of two or three points.
In the end I think that Ulster will just not have the fire power and may struggle to live with the pace and tempo of the Northampton game, particularly if they get control early in the game.
Biarritz v Toulouse -
Toulouse by 6-10 points
At this stage last year, the
Ospreys could and should have won in the Estadio Anoeta in San Sebastian with only the brilliance of Tukudzwa Ngwenya saving the day for Biarritz. A year on and similar questions will be asked of a seemingly inconsistent Biarritz side. Much will depend on what mindset the Basque side turn up with tomorrow. In last year's Heineken Cup final they lost the physical battle with Toulouse and this area will be a key priority for them; whether this means they play more of a tight game we will have to see.
Biarritz have had their plans disrupted by the loss of Damien Traille. The vastly experienced centre, pulled up in training and has been forced to withdraw from the match with a bruised heel. His placed will be filled by Charles Gimenez. Earlier an ankle injury to Australian full back Dane Haylett-Pettyto has meant that Iain Balshaw will play at full back.
For Toulouse Bouilhou will captain the side from the back row where he is joined by Picamoles and Nicolas with Nyanga on the bench. There is still some doubt over the fitness of Dann Human and he will be replaced by Jean-Baptiste Poux if required. A back three of Cedric Heymans, Vincent Clerc and Maxime Medard looks hugely exciting while Clement Poitrenaud will partner Florian Fritz in the centre. The three times Heineken Cup winner, Yannick Jauzion is on the bench and the final place in the match day squad will be a late decision between Gregory Lamboley and
Rupeni Caucaunibuca.
I am going for a repeat of the result in last year's final with a victory for Toulouse. I feel they just have a better all round game which will see them through. Let us also hope that we see more tries than the two sides served up in Paris a year ago.